MMA Event Breakdown - UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Magomedov

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov

Sean Strickland has become “Mr. Apex” by routinely appearing in main events in the small octagon within the confines of the fight capital of the world, Las Vegas, Nevada. This weekend he gets another crack at the headlining role opposite UFC newcomer Abus Magomedov, a humble 1-0 inside the octagon with a bevy of professional experience elsewhere. The card is full of action fights with international appeal, and we could see several prospects take the next important step in their professional development. However, given last week’s UFC event, we must remember never to count out the underdog prematurely, as underdogs were rolling early and often in Jacksonville.

Alexander Romanov vs. Blagoy Ivanov

Fight Odds: -130 Romanov vs. +110 Ivanov
Weight Class: 265lb. (Heavyweight)

It is rare to see UFC heavyweight action kicking off the card, but that’s what we will get in the curtain jerker on Saturday night, as the once hyped Alexandr Romanov looks to right the ship against the battle-tested veteran Blagoy Ivanov. Romanov was the biggest favorite in UFC history when he defeated Chase Sherman via first round submission, but he has since dropped the ball in consecutive outings against Marcin Tybura and Alexander Volkov. Tybura weathered the early storm to rally back in rounds two and three for the decision, while Volkov prevented the early takedown attempts and broke Romanov in the opening frame.

Romanov has lost his peak physical fitness, struggled to maintain a team around him, and he is searching for answers, moving to Maryland for this training camp after a career-worst showing, training on his own in Moldova. Ivanov is a former Combat Sambo World Champion, but his smaller stature could cause him trouble against his massive heavyweight foe. Ivanov’s approach must be to extend this fight, as Romanov has horrible cardio, and his accumulation of extra weight will further inhibit his ability to fight hard for fifteen minutes. In a binary fight, I will favor the larger man with more early finish equity at heavyweight, but I will not feel inspired to back him at the betting window.

Prediction: Alexandr Romanov defeats Blagoy Ivanov via TKO1/SDEC

Ivana Petrovic vs. Luana Carolina

Fight Odds: -225 Petrovic vs. +185 Carolina
Weight Class: 125lb. (Women’s Flyweight)

Ivana Petrovic has been given the distinction of betting favorite in this fight, despite being a UFC debutant taking on a more experienced UFC fighter in Luana “Dred” Carolina, a so-so striker with half-decent takedown defense and solid enough volume for the division.

Petrovic is only 6-0 as a professional, but she has shown growth throughout her fights, a willingness to fight through adversity when she was dropped, and an ability to finish her opponents when they show any signs of vulnerability. Carolina is capable of out-striking Petrovic in this fight or perhaps even hurting her standing, but I think she is outmatched on the mat, less of a dog than Petrovic, and she also has a sketchy chin after being laid out by a spinning back elbow from Molly McCann.

Prediction: Ivana Petrovic defeats Luana Carolina via SUB3/UDEC

Guram Kutateladze vs. Elves Brener

Fight Odds: -600 Kutateladze vs. +450 Brener
Weight Class: 155lb. (Lightweight)

Guram Kutateladze has shown some flashes of brilliance inside the octagon with his dynamic kicks, his solid takedown defense, and his incredible physique. Despite only having a 1-1 record inside the octagon and closing as an underdog on both occasions, Kutateladze is entrenched as a massive favorite in this fight against Brener. Brener is 1-0 inside the octagon with an impressive short notice win over Zubaira Tukhugov via SDEC as a +500 (16.7% implied win probability) betting underdog. Brener showed in that fight he is capable of competing at kicking range, he is savvy enough to disrupt pressure with takedown attempts and lateral movement, and he is game enough to take hard shots and keep coming forward to pursue the fight.

Kutateladze is at a massive athleticism edge in this fight, but his cardio is a bit suspect in round three, and his inactivity and inability to string together octagon appearances could tax him down the stretch if this fight gets extended. Brenner could succumb to the power punching or return fire at kicking range, but he is a scrappy, proven underdog being disrespected by the market.

Prediction: Guram Kutateladze defeats Elves Brenner via SDEC

Joanderson Brito vs. Westin Wilson

Fight Odds: -1250 Brito vs. +850 Wilson
Weight Class: 145lb. (Featherweight)

Joanderson Brito is one of the biggest betting favorites you will see on a UFC card, as he clocks in at a 92.6% implied win probability against UFC debutant and Upstate Karate representative Westin Wilson. Brito was supposed to take on Khusein Askhabov on this card, but Askhabov withdrew due to injury. Brito has exploded on the scene in the UFC with two first round finishes after dropping a fun back and forth decision against Bill Algeo.

Brito also has regional wins over the likes of recent UFC debutant Chepe Mariscal, Wellington Prado, and Diego Lopes (UFC coach and athlete) on the Contender Series. Wilson has stepped up in competition at several points in his career and most often lost in dominant fashion. I expect more of the same, as Brito should win barring a fluky KO for his opponent. He is the heavier hitter, the better grappler, and the more dynamic athlete. The only caveat is Brito is a wild fighter who embraces chaos, so he is not a fighter you can trust at such wild chalk prices.

Prediction: Joanderson Brito defeats Westin Wilson via SUB1 (RNC)

Yana Santos vs. Karol Rosa

Fight Odds: +150 Santos vs. -175 Rosa
Weight Class: 145lb. (Women’s Featherweight)

Yana Santos was audited by Holly Holm in her last outing in March, but she is back in the octagon this weekend taking on Karol Rosa on short notice after her originally scheduled bout with Macy Chiasson was canceled. Rosa is taking this fight as a short notice featherweight despite turning in a flat, lifeless performance against Norma Dumont for much of their April contest.

Rosa is making a quick turnaround here, and she should have the superior striking, but she has the smaller frame and suspect takedown defense against a more veteran fighter in Yana Santos, formerly known as Yana Kunitskaya. Santos has been fighting mostly top 5 level fighters in the division since 2021, so this may represent a step down in competition on short notice- she could be an interesting underdog. The concern for Santos is her level of motivation given her age, her husband having left the company, and her growing family.

Prediction: Yana Santos defeats Karol Rosa via SDEC

Kevin Lee vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov

Fight Odds: +170 Lee vs. -200 Fakhretdinov
Weight Class: 170lb. (Welterweight)

Kevin Lee is making his long-awaited return to the UFC octagon in the preliminary headliner against a very tough Russian opponent in Fakhretdinov, 2-0 inside the octagon with a pair of dominant decision wins. The problem I have in evaluating these two against each other is that Lee has shown poor form in his most recent UFC run against an elite gauntlet of fighters at two different weight classes. Fakhretdinov has the opposite problem, because he has looked sensational in his recent fights, but he has been fighting opposition I would also favor Kevin Lee to beat.

The deciding factor for me here is the price, because I think this is an honest, close fight between two savvy wrestle-grapplers, but Lee has the more proven power and finishing upside at the UFC level. Neither man has a perfect gas tank in this fight, and the fight is only three rounds, two factors which should help Kevin Lee’s confidence heading into the contest. I believe Lee is ready to show maturity and poise inside the octagon and demonstrate the fruits of his labor after investing in a long-term camp with Kill Cliff FC in Florida. Lee has historically been a fast starter, and he has cashed twice in the UFC as an underdog via first-round knockout.

Prediction: Kevin Lee defeats Rinat Fakrehtdinov via KO1

Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Brunno Ferreira

Fight Odds: +190 Ruziboev vs. -230 Ferreira
Weight Class: 185lb. (Middleweight)

This is a fascinating fight because Ruziboev is the much larger fighter with four times the professional experience of Ferreira, yet he is a significant underdog against him. Ferreria, to his credit, separated Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues from his consciousness in his UFC debut, putting the UFC on notice that he was a force to be reckoned with. Ruziboev is on an eight-fight win streak heading into this bout, and he will have a massive 7” height advantage and a 4” reach advantage over his opponent.

Ruziboev’s biggest flaw is he can be taken down and held down at times, and he is not always urgent enough or thoughtful in his choices while standing up. The Uzbekistan product is still just 29 years of age, and he has moved his training to Renzo Gracie Philly full time, so I expect him to continue making improvements. I believe Ruziboev can leverage his size, his unorthodox grappling techniques and his length on the feet to keep Fereirra honest. The longer this fight goes, the more interesting it will become, as Ferreria’s record is replete with early finishes but void of any extended bouts where we could see his cardio tested. Ruziboev has performed poorly in decisions, but he has seen the full fifteen.

Prediction: Nursulton Ruziboev defeats Brunno Ferreira via KO3/SDEC

Benoit Saint-Denis vs.Ismael Bonfim

Fight Odds: +250 Saint-Denis vs. -300 Bonfim
Weight Class: 155lb. (Lightweight)

This fight is fascinating because it encapsulates how much market perception can change fight over fight. Ismael Bonfim closed an underdog last time out against Terrance McKinney, a flawed but dangerous fighter with a comically poor gas tank at the UFC level and an ability to pace himself effectively over fifteen minutes of fighting. Bonfim won via KO2 as predicted by this author in this very article for UFC 283.

That being said, this fight is taking place in Las Vegas, not in Bonfim’s native Brazil. Saint-Denis is not a slouch with poor cardio. He is a former special ops soldier with a ridiculous will to win, a tolerance for damage, and an ability to impose danger on the feet and on the ground. Saint-Denis has a robust submission offense, power in his strikes, and a fearless approach to fighting. I expect someone will likely get cracked and finished in this fight given the firepower and the volatile style each brings to the table, but I believe the line is blown out of proportion, and Saint-Denis is a live underdog if he can stay conscious.

Prediction: Benoit Saint-Denis defeats Ismael Bonfim via KO3/SDEC

Ariane Lipski vs. Melissa Gatto

Fight Odds: +185 Lipski vs. -225 Gatto
Weight Class: 125lb. (Women’s Flyweight)

Arianne Lipski has begun to show better form since following Amanda Nunes to American Top Team and eventually to her own “Lioness” Gym in Florida. Lipski showed off improved takedown defense and overall preparation against JJ Aldrich in her last fight, but she has a much more difficult assignment here in Melissa Gatto. Gatto dropped a decision to Tracy Cortez in her last outing, but with a few small tactical adjustments, she could beat Cortez, a solid fighter in the division with better results to date than Lipski. Prior to that fight, Gatto has finished Karol Rosa via submission (kimura) on the regional scene, and she TKO’d Victoria Leonardo and Sijara Eubanks inside the octagon.

Gatto’s fatal flaw is her willingness to play guard off her back, but she should have a pronounced grappling edge as a recently promoted BJJ brown belt against a fighter in Lipski, who has struggled mightily off her back, conceding twice to ground and pound strikes in the second round in the UFC. Gatto has the power, the takedown upside, and the musculature to dominate on the floor, but standing, she could be vulnerable against a more proven volume threat and combination puncher in Lipski. Give me Gatto due to physicality.

Prediction: Melissa Gatto defeats Arianne Lipski via Stoppage Rd. 2

Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales

Fight Odds: +200 Griffin vs. -250 Morales
Weight Class: 170lb. (Welterweight)

Michael Morales would be the algorithm pick for sure in this fight, as he has a massive advantage in size in addition to being the much younger, fresher fighter in the matchup. Max Griffin is fourteen fights deep in his UFC tenure, and at 37 years of age, he has no time to waste when it comes to pushing his way up the division. Morales is just 24 years of age, with plenty of growing and maturing to do inside the octagon. Morales has dropped rounds and fought close with the likes of Adam Fugitt, so he is not a runaway favorite in this fight as I see it.

Griffin has some well-rounded skills and dynamic punching power, so he could win the first round in this fight and compete hard for the second, but his ability to sustain a three-round pace is beginning to diminish over time, and he is finally fighting a younger fighter after besting a string of age contemporaries. Griffin disclosed he is on the second to last fight of his deal, so perhaps the UFC is trying to cash him out against a legitimate prospect, but Griffin will be no pushover. Griffin could test the chin of Morales, and he is his most difficult fight to date, so I am not sure the odds are fully reflective of the fight in front of us. Give me Griffin to score the upset.

Prediction: Max Griffin defeats Michael Morales via TKO1/SDEC

Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson

Fight Odds: -110 Ismagulov vs. -110 Dawson
Weight Class: 155lb. (Lightweight)

Damir Ismagulov is a very solid fighter, but he is difficult to trust in this spot given the uncertainty he has faced outside of the octagon, including rumors of health woes, family issues, and retirement from the sport. Skill for skill, Ismagulov is well equipped, showing promise in wrestling, grappling, and striking disciplines. The problem for Ismagulov is an inability to produce stunning, damaging offense on a consistent enough basis to finish his opponents. Dawson is able to produce finishes through sloppy, heavily applied pressure grappling with ground and pound fundamentals, fluid passing, and lethal submission applications.

Ismagulov is a gamer with elite defense and a snappy jab, but he fights within very tight margins, and he can be rendered defensive by consistent, effective wrestling attacks, as we saw in his last fight against elite wrestler Arman Tdarukyan. Dawson is not the wrestler Tsarukyan is, but he is perhaps a more lethal pure grappler, and he is able to bring multiple takedown attempts to bear. Dawson is the younger fighter, he has a clearer idea of how he needs to win this fight, and he has more finishing upside, so I have to side with him. That being said, I agree with the pick em price at the betting window, because the best version of Ismagulov is above the level of fighter that Dawson has proved himself capable of beating up to this point in his career.

Prediction: Grant Dawson defeats Damir Ismagulov via SUB2/SDEC

Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov

Fight Odds: -150 Strickland vs. +125 Magomedov
Weight Class: 185lb. (Middleweight)

Abus Magomedov is an interesting new addition to the UFC’s middleweight division, while Sean Strickland is one of the most visible and tiresome elements. Now dubbed “Mr. Apex,” Strickland typifies a boring brand of five-round cardio kickboxing sparring highlighted by forward pressure, parrying punches, and firing jabs. Magomedov, on the other hand, is a Dagestani by way of Germany, with an explosive finish over Dustin Stoltsfuz in his lone UFC appearance. Strickland is a much more experienced UFC fighter, but that didn’t help him around this time last year when he was sent to the shadow realm by Alex Pereira in the first round of their contest.

Strickland is a meat and potatoes fighter with no glaring weaknesses except his willingness to fight with ego and against logical game planning. Strickland is willing to fight like an idiot, and when you do that, you can cost yourself winnable fights. Magomedov may lose this fight, but I think he is less likely than Strickland to defeat himself, and for that reason, I’ll take the dog. Magomedov can find Strickland on the center line with kicks and uppercuts, and he is the more powerful striker as well, so I have to favor the upside of the European.

Prediction: Abus Magomedov defeats Sean Strickland via KO2